Sources and references · TCGplayer — Peter Day
Observed results, not box guarantees
Peter Day’s September 24 TCGplayer study reports openings of more than 3,000 English packs by its authentication center. The table summarizes observed category frequencies, not official Pokémon odds or guarantees for Brazilian and Japanese packs.
A rarity is not a specific card
Pulling any Special Illustration Rare differs from pulling one chosen SIR. A category’s frequency cannot be assigned to every card in it. The study reports confidence intervals; “one in 21” is a rounded reading aid, not a distribution rule.
| Category | Frequency | Approximate packs |
|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 21.02% | 1 / 5 |
| Illustration Rare | 19.72% | 1 / 5 |
| Classic Collection | 10.15% | 1 / 10 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 4.88% | 1 / 21 |
| Futuristic Rare | 0.83% | 1 / 120 |
| RGB Rare | — | — |
What 21 packs would mean
Using 4.88% per pack and assuming independent openings, the calculated chance of at least one SIR in 21 packs is 1 − (1 − 0.0488)^21, about 65%. The chance of none remains about 35%. For nine packs, the same calculation gives about 36%. This is our mathematical illustration, not a sealed-box test.
No RGB estimate
TCGplayer observed no RGB cards in its sample. That does not mean they are impossible to pull, and it does not establish a positive observed rate. We therefore leave that entry blank rather than inventing odds.
Using the figures
Opening packs is random; buying a single lets you choose the card. Compare those experiences within your budget without reading the rates as a promised return. Language, pack composition and sampling method also matter when comparing products.
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